GRAMMATICAS CONSULTING LTD
Briefing Note
By Dominic Grammaticas FCA
August 2026
Every CEO needs to be looking ahead right now. Two significant events are approaching that will shape the operating environment for Kenyan tourism over the next twelve months. Both are foreseeable. Both are plannable. Neither should catch anyone by surprise. And yet, in my experience, too few operators are actively preparing for either.
The first is the El Niño weather event now forecast to arrive from October 2026. The World Meteorological Organization projects this to rank among the strongest on record, with a 63 to 65 percent chance of reaching super-strength through to February 2027. For East Africa, that means suppressed rainfall mid-year followed by intense and prolonged flooding from October onwards. Access roads, bridges, airstrips, camp infrastructure, waste systems, drainage, and logistics systems could all be affected. If your operation is in a flood-prone area and you have not stress-tested your early warning systems, infrastructure and contingency plans, October is not far away.
The second is Kenya’s general election, now officially confirmed for August 10, 2027. The IEBC has just published its electoral roadmap and political activity effectively begins this October. History tells us that election years bring uncertainty in government policy, a slowdown in capital expenditure, disruption to some supply chains, and caution among international visitors and investors. The 2027 cycle will be no different.
What makes the next twelve months particularly challenging is that these two events overlap. El Niño hits during the short rains and runs through to early 2027. The election campaign heats up from May 2027 and peaks in August. There is no quiet period in between. Operators who plan for one and not the other are only seeing half the picture.
The questions for CEOs are straightforward. Have you modelled the financial impact of reduced occupancy during a severe El Niño? Have you reviewed your infrastructure for flood resilience? Have you scenario-planned for an election year slowdown in bookings and investment? Do you have the cash reserves to absorb a difficult twelve months?
This time next year, we hope both of these events are in the rear-view mirror. But between now and then, the operators who come through strongest will be the ones who planned ahead.
If you would like help preparing your business for what lies ahead, I would welcome the conversation.
Dominic Grammaticas FCA
Managing Director, Grammaticas Consulting Ltd
